Our 2026 Oscar Predictions — Sinners, Sentimental Value, and the Picks We'll Regret
A vintage-style movie ticket stub torn in half, with "OSCARS 2026" printed on it in bold retro font, set against a dark theater background with a faint golden spotlight — warm tones, slightly worn texture, classic movie poster feel.
Five friends, one ballot, zero agreement — and one host who cheerfully admits he watched almost nothing. 🎬
In our annual Oscar preview, the gang breaks down this year's Academy Award nominees with wildly different levels of preparation. Jim has seen everything. Beth and Peg powered through nearly every Best Picture nominee in a homework sprint that would make a grad student weep. Shelly saw two and is perfectly at peace with that. John asks questions. 🍿
Before we get to the picks, Jim delivers a masterclass on how the Academy actually works — the 4,000-member invitation-only voting body, the peer-based nomination system (directors vote for directors, actors for actors), ranked-choice voting for Best Picture, and the Academy's new honor-system rule requiring voters to certify they've actually watched every nominee. This naturally leads to:
The Dolores Hart story — the 1960s actress who quit Hollywood to become a nun but kept her Academy voting card 🙏
The Gary Busey question — should people who've "clearly lost their marbles" still get to vote? 🤔
The jeans hypothetical — Peg asks if she'd be kicked out of the ceremony for showing up in denim, Shelly predicts she'd never be invited back, and John reminds everyone it's called "the Gay Super Bowl" for a reason 👖
Then we get into what everyone actually watched — and it gets personal:
Peg went in blind to both Weapons and Sinners and emerged rattled but entertained. Her review of Weapons: "It was f***ed up. Am I allowed to say that?" (John's children can no longer listen to this episode.) 😳
Beth boycotted Marty Supreme on principle, declaring Timothée Chalamet doesn't need another win and she doesn't need another unlikable character in a long movie. She then pivoted to watching every other nominee and falling in love with Hamnet and Sinners. 🎭
Shelly stumbled onto Retirement Plans — the animated short about, well, retirement — and it hit her right in the feelings, given that Ian retires in two weeks. She makes no apologies for going into movies with an "I'm just here to be entertained" mindset. 🥲
Jim names his top four films of the year — Sorry Baby, Springsteen, Sentimental Value, and Sinners — all starting with the letter S, which he insists is cosmic, not curated. He'd personally vote for Sentimental Value but gives Sinners full credit for being the smartest use of horror tropes since Jordan Peele. 🎥
Beth confesses that Jim's movie opinions have too much influence over her viewing habits. "I shouldn't have listened to Jim" is the quote of the episode. Jim responds: "Generally good advice." 😂
We also take a detour into how everyone decides what to watch — John relies on Jim and curated Chicago theaters (the Gene Siskel Film Center, the Landmark). Beth goes when her neighbors invite her. Peg is influenced by ads she sees on the rare occasions her TiVo (yes, TiVo) lets one through. And Jim sees everything, analytically, while confessing he's watched every season of Virgin River and can't defend it. 📺
This leads to a spirited Tarantino roast. Jim argues Reservoir Dogs was the peak, Pulp Fiction was overrated, and everything since has been a brilliant director choosing to poke people in the eyes instead of making coherent films. John admits he fell for the Tarantino cult when he lived in France. Beth checked out after Kill Bill. Nobody defends him. Sorry, Quentin. 🔪
The Picks:
🗳️ Peg — Sentimental Value for Best Picture, Ethan Hawke for Best Actor, Jesse Buckley for Best Actress, Chloe Zhao for Best Director. Frankenstein sweeps the craft categories.
🗳️ Shelly — Sinners for Best Picture, Michael B. Jordan for Best Actor, Kate Hudson for Best Actress, Paul Thomas Anderson for Best Director. Also: "Golden" from K-Pop Demon Hunters for Best Song — which John's kindergartener can confirm is the song of the year.
🗳️ Beth — Sinners for Best Picture, Michael B. Jordan for Best Actor, Jesse Buckley for Best Actress, Chloe Zhao for Best Director. She's sending a statement vote for Ryan Coogler's original screenplay and was moved by the international feature It Was Just an Accident, secretly filmed in Iran.
🗳️ Jim — One Battle After Another will probably win Best Picture, but a Sinners upset wouldn't shock him. Timothée Chalamet for Best Actor (though the betting markets have shifted to Michael B. Jordan). Jesse Buckley is a lock for Best Actress. Sean Penn for Supporting Actor. Paul Thomas Anderson for Best Director. Amy Madigan may sneak into Supporting Actress. And he thinks if Sinners wins Film Editing early in the ceremony, watch out — that could signal an upset.
The episode closes with Peg predicting the In Memoriam segment will be a tearjerker given how many major figures died this year, a brief debate about whether the ceremony should be a forum for political statements (consensus: wish for peace, skip the lecture), and Shelly's sign-off reminding everyone that the opinions are strong, the facts are occasionally cooperative, and the debates are always lively. 🏆
Warning: This episode contains spoilers for several nominated films, a lengthy discussion of Brad Pitt's age relative to his character in F1, Jim's claim that he doesn't actually sleep, and John's assertion that going to the movies costs $50 per person in Chicago. Parking is not free near Pilsen. 🅿️
Like the show?
Forward this episode to a friend!
Listen wherever you get your podcasts... #Oscars2026 #OscarPredictions #BestPicture #Sinners #AcademyAwards #MoviePodcast #FilmReview #InSearchOfAnArgument
